Friday, December 18, 2009

On the death penalty and homicide rates

Excerpting from: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8597101&postID=2582150553367238939

Though I thought I should note that it wasn't that long ago that Hispanics were less likely to commit crimes of violence or to kill someone than the national average -- significantly so.

The discussion that follows goes all over the map, by the end it gets to this point:

During the 1960s, one neighborhood in San Francisco had the highest unemployment rate, lowest income, least educational achievement, and the highest proportion of substandard housing. That neighborhood was called Chinatown. Yet, in 1965, there were only five person of Chinese ancestry committed to prison in the entire state of California.

The national Canadian homicide rate for 2006 is 1.9 per 100,000. America's was 5.7.

Now let's look at the homicide rate in a few states which border Canada.

Maine 1.7
New Hampshire 1.0
Vermont 2.7
North Dakota 0.5
Montana 2.4
Idaho 1.5

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita -- five of the top ten homicide indicative countries have de minimus populations of Blacks or Hispanics. (note Liberia, Iran, and Cambodia, and others, aren’t on the list, it only covers about a third of the world’s countries, so the statistics have real weaknesses).

However, why does Russia have such a high murder rate? Latvia? Or Belarus? Estonia? Ukraine?

When you get to the answer, you are getting to reality and not being misled by red herrings

The rest of the quotes are below the line:



Few Americans appreciate that over 70 percent of American murders take place in just 3.5 percent of counties. Most of the country experiences European rates of homicide.

Maine, Wyoming, Vermont, and Idaho have homicide rates on par with Europe despite their strong gun culture, relatively easy access to firearms by citizens, and shall-issue concealed carry laws.

Atlanta, Baltimore, District of Columbia, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, And St. Louis all have homicide rates on par with Jamaica and South Africa despite the fact that some of those cities have gun laws as strict as or even stricter than Europe.

In 1997 Vermont’s homicide rate was 1.4. (Switzerland’s was 1.2.)
That same year in Washington, D.C., it was 57.

Calling them both "substantial" is like saying that both the Boy Scouts and Atilla the Hun enjoyed "active outdoor lifestyles."

In the District of Columbia, where Americans murder each other more briskly than in any other American city, residents in 1988 and 1989 were more likely to be killed than were people living in Northern Ireland, the Punjab, or even Lebanon. DC, of course, has the strictest gun laws in the nation.

Boise, Idaho – had a homicide rate of 0.7 per 100,000 – lower than Switzerland’s.

In 2008 New Hampshire had a homicide rate of 1.0 per 100,000. http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nhcrime.htm
That puts it on par with Denmark.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita

All this talk of race avoids the "elephant in the room" - geographical analysis of homicide pattern consistently reveal that when neighborhood social and environmental conditions are controlled (i.e., held constant) the effects of race are largely washed out.

During the 1930s, when the unemployment rate stood at 37 percent, the murder rate had fallen to 6.3 per 100,000 and to 4.7 per 100,000 by 1960.

Even National Public Radio got this right.
During the Great Depression there was very little crime. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97234406.

During the 1960s, one neighborhood in San Francisco had the highest unemployment rate, lowest income, least educational achievement, and the highest proportion of substandard housing. That neighborhood was called Chinatown. Yet, in 1965, there were only five person of Chinese ancestry committed to prison in the entire state of California.

The national Canadian homicide rate for 2006 is 1.9 per 100,000. America's was 5.7.

Now let's look at the homicide rate in a few states which border Canada.

Maine 1.7
New Hampshire 1.0
Vermont 2.7
North Dakota 0.5
Montana 2.4
Idaho 1.5

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita -- five of the top ten homicide indicative countries have de minimus populations of Blacks or Hispanics. (note Liberia, Iran, and Cambodia, and others, aren’t on the list, it only covers about a third of the world’s countries, so the statistics have real weaknesses).

However, why does Russia have such a high murder rate? Latvia? Or Belarus? Estonia? Ukraine?

When you get to the answer, you are getting to reality and not being misled by red herrings.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Realities of weapons of mass destruction

There are some counter intuitive truths that apply to WMDs or weapons of mass destruction.

Simply put:

  • Fission weapons: not enough bang for the buck.
  • Chemical weapons: only good for war crimes.
  • Biological weapons: a chance to shoot yourself in the foot.
  • Nuclear waste weapons: the original scorched earth method.
I'll be blogging on these topics and others.